Tag Archives: projections

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, I have completely revamped the model that churns out the numbers. If you’re curious, this is a post explaining the new method, but the gist is that I’m now using score-adjustments rather than score-close. That plus a re-weighting of 5-on-5 and special teams data.

Here are last week’s rankings with the old method, and with the adjustments there’s obviously some big changes this week as some teams went up thanks to the adjustment, and some teams went down.

The biggest news is there’s a new number one this week as Pittsburgh’s long reign at the top is over thanks to scaling back the weight on special teams.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

a better playoff output projection

If you’ve been following me for a while, then you’re probably aware of a stat I created called POP which aims to predict the playoffs and more accurately forecast who the best teams in the league are.

There’s been some work done recently, as well as suggestions from smarter people, that’s made me consider making changes to the stat.

In its current iteration, POP is (Fenwick Close + ((0.6 x Goals Close)/PDO Close)) x (PP% + PK%). The first part of the equation is very similar to what Tom Tango is working on right now with weighted shot differential, so it was interesting to see someone else working on something similar.

Continue reading a better playoff output projection

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

In this week’s power rankings, Washington crawls back into the top five, Pittsburgh finally falls below 100 and the biggest drop of the week belongs to Carolina who fall into the bottom ten.

Meanwhile, the Leafs find themselves just outside the top ten and somehow ahead of St. Louis and Nashville.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

In this week’s power rankings, Washington and Anaheim fall out of the top five, Pittsburgh loosens its stronghold on the number one spot and Dallas has the biggest drop of the week falling into the bottom 10.

Meanwhile, the Central division continues to show its strength while the Metro division is a downright laughingstock .

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, almost every team is in the same spot as last week, which means the rankings are stabilizing, which is only a good thing.

Pittsburgh continues its dominance, having spent every single week at the top as Chicago moves into No. 2 after finally getting some luck in the goal scoring department.

Anaheim is showing they’re for real this year as they slide into the top five at the expense of Tampa Bay, and Florida drops all the way to 22 after getting dominated territorially in just about every game this week.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Montreal climbs out of mediocrity thanks to improvement on the powerplay, and Minnesota vaults back up to the second spot.

Other than those two, most teams are in almost the exact same spot as last week which is good news because it means the rankings are stabilizing. The only issues remain at the top and bottom, where Pittsburgh is unsustainably higher than everyone else and Buffalo remains laughably bad.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s ratings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Minnesota drops out of the top five, while St. Louis vaults right into it. The weeks biggest shock though belongs to the Leafs who find themselves projected for a playoff spot for the first time.

The Kings continue their surprising struggles and the Devils fall 12 spots almost to McDavid territory, and boy wouldn’t that be the worst team possible to draft him.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29

It’s still very early as some teams haven’t even played 10 games yet, but the rankings are looking better already.

In the second edition of my power rankings powered by math, the Kings make their entry into the top 10, while the Blue Jackets fall very far out of the top 10 as injuries strike. Plus, a new addition to the season projections: playoff odds.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29