Tag Archives: predictions

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, I have completely revamped the model that churns out the numbers. If you’re curious, this is a post explaining the new method, but the gist is that I’m now using score-adjustments rather than score-close. That plus a re-weighting of 5-on-5 and special teams data.

Here are last week’s rankings with the old method, and with the adjustments there’s obviously some big changes this week as some teams went up thanks to the adjustment, and some teams went down.

The biggest news is there’s a new number one this week as Pittsburgh’s long reign at the top is over thanks to scaling back the weight on special teams.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

a better playoff output projection

If you’ve been following me for a while, then you’re probably aware of a stat I created called POP which aims to predict the playoffs and more accurately forecast who the best teams in the league are.

There’s been some work done recently, as well as suggestions from smarter people, that’s made me consider making changes to the stat.

In its current iteration, POP is (Fenwick Close + ((0.6 x Goals Close)/PDO Close)) x (PP% + PK%). The first part of the equation is very similar to what Tom Tango is working on right now with weighted shot differential, so it was interesting to see someone else working on something similar.

Continue reading a better playoff output projection

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

In this week’s power rankings, Washington crawls back into the top five, Pittsburgh finally falls below 100 and the biggest drop of the week belongs to Carolina who fall into the bottom ten.

Meanwhile, the Leafs find themselves just outside the top ten and somehow ahead of St. Louis and Nashville.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

In this week’s power rankings, Washington and Anaheim fall out of the top five, Pittsburgh loosens its stronghold on the number one spot and Dallas has the biggest drop of the week falling into the bottom 10.

Meanwhile, the Central division continues to show its strength while the Metro division is a downright laughingstock .

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, almost every team is in the same spot as last week, which means the rankings are stabilizing, which is only a good thing.

Pittsburgh continues its dominance, having spent every single week at the top as Chicago moves into No. 2 after finally getting some luck in the goal scoring department.

Anaheim is showing they’re for real this year as they slide into the top five at the expense of Tampa Bay, and Florida drops all the way to 22 after getting dominated territorially in just about every game this week.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Montreal climbs out of mediocrity thanks to improvement on the powerplay, and Minnesota vaults back up to the second spot.

Other than those two, most teams are in almost the exact same spot as last week which is good news because it means the rankings are stabilizing. The only issues remain at the top and bottom, where Pittsburgh is unsustainably higher than everyone else and Buffalo remains laughably bad.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s ratings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Minnesota drops out of the top five, while St. Louis vaults right into it. The weeks biggest shock though belongs to the Leafs who find themselves projected for a playoff spot for the first time.

The Kings continue their surprising struggles and the Devils fall 12 spots almost to McDavid territory, and boy wouldn’t that be the worst team possible to draft him.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29

It’s still very early as some teams haven’t even played 10 games yet, but the rankings are looking better already.

In the second edition of my power rankings powered by math, the Kings make their entry into the top 10, while the Blue Jackets fall very far out of the top 10 as injuries strike. Plus, a new addition to the season projections: playoff odds.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29

2014-15 nhl season preview

This is now the third season preview I’ve done for this blog, and I seriously considered just copying last year’s intro verbatim. But I can’t because this year I’ve decided to change up the format. In previous years I made 20 BOLD predictions for the year (2013, 2014) that were seemingly random. This year I’m going to do one for each team and combine that with what I did for my Leafs season preview last year, where I take a look at each team from an both an optimistic and pessimistic view.

But before I get to this year, let’s talk about the dumb things I said last year.

Continue reading 2014-15 nhl season preview

why possession isn’t everything

It’s true. Possession isn’t everything. The problem with that argument is no one seriously looking at it disagrees. It’s a strawman argument.

But while no one is arguing that puck possession is everything, it does seem to be the only thing that people really focus on when analyzing hockey (with some exceptions obviously).

That’s not a wrong thing to do, possession is a tremendous indicator of future success, but it’s missing part of the pie. The part where shooting and goaltending talent exist. The part of the game that isn’t played 5 on 5. These things matter. It’s not at the level that possession matters in the long run, but it’s a vital part of a team’s success. Factoring those two pieces creates a better measure of future success and arguably a team’s true talent.

That’s what I aimed to do this summer, put the pieces together in a way that makes sense given what we know about the game right now. (I swear it was to further the discussion and not for gambling).

Continue reading why possession isn’t everything

2013-2014 stanley cup final preview

The Stanley Cup Final is set and it’s a match made in TV heaven. The two biggest markets in the USA square off in what will likely be a ratings bonanza.

New York. Los Angeles. Somewhere Gary Bettman is smiling while a paid butler makes it rain. This matchup is probably all he ever wanted.

This is a matchup that many analytics types had predicted from the get go (one even made over $3,000 from a $75 bet on twitter dot com).

The Kings led the league in puck possession, and got even better after acquiring Marian Gaborik.  They were the fourth best POP team in the West and seventh in the entire NHL. But in their last 25 games they were second to only Boston in the entire league.

The Rangers were a Stanley Cup dark horse going in, quietly being the sixth best possession team in the league. They were right behind the Kings as the eighth best POP team, but also the fourth best in their last 25 games of the season (behind Boston, Los Angeles, and San Jose).

Coming in to this playoffs, POP was at 56-19 in accurately predicting series outcomes. This year it’s stumbled to an 8-6 record through three rounds after going 1-1 in Round 3 (POP over the last 25 games is 10-4 and was 2-0 in Round 3).

Five of those six losses came in a seventh game against a road team. A bounce the other way and that record would be a bit more respectable.

Continue reading 2013-2014 stanley cup final preview

2013-2014 nhl playoffs preview: round three

In case you haven’t read it yet, this is the system I’m rolling with this year that combines possession, talent, and special teams.

It’s going really well so far…

POP is currently 7-5 after going 2-2 in round two (goddamn east). Which is not very good. Before this year it went 56-19 since 2008-2009, so this year has been very crazy compared to other years in terms of upsets and a lot of series could’ve went the other way.

Take for example the six (!) series that went to seven games.

The home team is 1-5 in those games. They all had a 3-2 (or better) series lead. POP had them all to win except Anaheim in Round 2, so a 2-4 record in series that went to seven. Sometimes that’s the way it goes. In only one of those instances where the series went to seven, did the team that played better in that series win (Minnesota over Colorado) although you can say the San Jose-LA series was a toss-up.

Basically, a lot of bad luck going the home (and arguably better) team’s way, and in turn, my way as well.

Continue reading 2013-2014 nhl playoffs preview: round three