Tag Archives: nhl

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, I have completely revamped the model that churns out the numbers. If you’re curious, this is a post explaining the new method, but the gist is that I’m now using score-adjustments rather than score-close. That plus a re-weighting of 5-on-5 and special teams data.

Here are last week’s rankings with the old method, and with the adjustments there’s obviously some big changes this week as some teams went up thanks to the adjustment, and some teams went down.

The biggest news is there’s a new number one this week as Pittsburgh’s long reign at the top is over thanks to scaling back the weight on special teams.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 17

a better playoff output projection

If you’ve been following me for a while, then you’re probably aware of a stat I created called POP which aims to predict the playoffs and more accurately forecast who the best teams in the league are.

There’s been some work done recently, as well as suggestions from smarter people, that’s made me consider making changes to the stat.

In its current iteration, POP is (Fenwick Close + ((0.6 x Goals Close)/PDO Close)) x (PP% + PK%). The first part of the equation is very similar to what Tom Tango is working on right now with weighted shot differential, so it was interesting to see someone else working on something similar.

Continue reading a better playoff output projection

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

In this week’s power rankings, Washington crawls back into the top five, Pittsburgh finally falls below 100 and the biggest drop of the week belongs to Carolina who fall into the bottom ten.

Meanwhile, the Leafs find themselves just outside the top ten and somehow ahead of St. Louis and Nashville.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 10

nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

In this week’s power rankings, Washington and Anaheim fall out of the top five, Pittsburgh loosens its stronghold on the number one spot and Dallas has the biggest drop of the week falling into the bottom 10.

Meanwhile, the Central division continues to show its strength while the Metro division is a downright laughingstock .

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: dec. 3

nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

In this week’s edition of the power rankings, almost every team is in the same spot as last week, which means the rankings are stabilizing, which is only a good thing.

Pittsburgh continues its dominance, having spent every single week at the top as Chicago moves into No. 2 after finally getting some luck in the goal scoring department.

Anaheim is showing they’re for real this year as they slide into the top five at the expense of Tampa Bay, and Florida drops all the way to 22 after getting dominated territorially in just about every game this week.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 26

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Montreal climbs out of mediocrity thanks to improvement on the powerplay, and Minnesota vaults back up to the second spot.

Other than those two, most teams are in almost the exact same spot as last week which is good news because it means the rankings are stabilizing. The only issues remain at the top and bottom, where Pittsburgh is unsustainably higher than everyone else and Buffalo remains laughably bad.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s ratings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 19

nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

In this week’s edition of power rankings, Minnesota drops out of the top five, while St. Louis vaults right into it. The weeks biggest shock though belongs to the Leafs who find themselves projected for a playoff spot for the first time.

The Kings continue their surprising struggles and the Devils fall 12 spots almost to McDavid territory, and boy wouldn’t that be the worst team possible to draft him.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this year. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov 12

nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 5

It’s the third week of power rankings here, and things are beginning to normalize everywhere except for No. 1 and No. 30. The Penguins have not only stayed at the top, they’ve separated themselves from the pack big time, while Buffalo continues to remain historically awful.

Meanwhile, the recent play of the Kings has been troubling as they had the biggest fall this week along with the Canadiens who have been downright putrid despite an 8-4-1 record.

If you haven’t read it yet, this is how I’ll be measuring each team this season. And here is last week’s rankings.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: nov. 5

nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29

It’s still very early as some teams haven’t even played 10 games yet, but the rankings are looking better already.

In the second edition of my power rankings powered by math, the Kings make their entry into the top 10, while the Blue Jackets fall very far out of the top 10 as injuries strike. Plus, a new addition to the season projections: playoff odds.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 29

nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 22

Two weeks into the season, it’s finally time to do some power rankings apparently. It’s still stupid early in the season to judge or predict anything, but everyone else was doing it so here’s mine.

Most power rankings are done with subjectivity and gut feel. This is not one of those. I don’t think you care who anyone thinks is the best team, because no one really knows, it’s just an opinion. I want to change that and rank the teams as objectively as possible, but even that won’t be perfect either, especially this early in the season.

Continue reading nhl power rankings and projections: oct. 22

2014-15 top 50 nhl players

Who are the 50 best players in hockey? It depends on who you ask because everyone has an opinion on who belongs among the league’s elite, and any list will spark controversy. So rather than complain (anymore) about the lists out there, I decided to make my own list along with my good pal Steve Tzemis. Is this list perfect? Yes No. But I personally think it’s a decent picture of who the best players are going into next season and beyond. And that’s meant as no disrespect to any other lists, I just always end up disagreeing with them, hell I disagreed with most half some of Steve’s picks too. This is our Top 50.

Continue reading 2014-15 top 50 nhl players

2014-15 nhl season preview

This is now the third season preview I’ve done for this blog, and I seriously considered just copying last year’s intro verbatim. But I can’t because this year I’ve decided to change up the format. In previous years I made 20 BOLD predictions for the year (2013, 2014) that were seemingly random. This year I’m going to do one for each team and combine that with what I did for my Leafs season preview last year, where I take a look at each team from an both an optimistic and pessimistic view.

But before I get to this year, let’s talk about the dumb things I said last year.

Continue reading 2014-15 nhl season preview