“This year’s playoff teams are super close so predicting who’s going to win seems absolutely foolish, so let’s do it anyways.” – me, before round one.
I was pretty right about that. It was almost the only thing I was right about. The first round is done and my picks went terribly! Somewhat worse than a coinflip at 3-5. I’ll find a way to pick up the pieces and live somehow.
Despite what happened in the first round, I think the second round should be easier to call. Here’s what I think goes down.
Continue reading 2014-15 nhl playoffs preview: round two
The tremendous guys at war-on-ice.com recently revealed their version of an all-encompassing stat for hockey, WAR, and I spent some time playing around with it. The stat is still in “alpha” stage meaning there’ll be some kinks to work out and some additions, but so far the results look very promising. Here’s their methodology.
It’s easy to get hooked on a one number stat that aims to explain a player’s entire worth, and that’s exactly what happened to me. I was fascinated by looking at certain player’s throughout their career and comparing them to other similarly viewed players. Seeing how valuable each player was compared to his peers using just one number was pretty cool to me, and I got lost in it.
Naturally, I made some charts with these comparisons. I also live in a magical world where injuries don’t exist and neither do lockouts, so everything is prorated to 82 games. I also hyphenated prorate on every chart for some reason like an idiot, but it’s too late for that to change.
Continue reading examining wins above replacement in the nhl
The playoffs are finally here and I’ve already written about the best way to pick winners (analytics) and who the favourites are (there aren’t any really). Now I want to take a look at each individual series and what I think will happen and why it will.
For that, I’m using a method that has predicted 73 percent of playoff results since 2007-08 and 27 of 30 over the last two years which is pretty good. It’s a small amount of series so far, but it’s an encouraging number nonetheless.
This year’s playoff teams are super close so predicting who’s going to win seems absolutely foolish, so let’s do it anyways.
Continue reading 2014-15 nhl playoffs preview: round one