Wow. That’s all I can say. Round 1 had some of the best hockey I’ve seen in a few years.
If you missed it, this is how I said I would be predicting the playoffs this year. To summarize I combined fenwick close (possession), goals close adjusted for PDO (talent), powerplay and penalty kill (special teams) to get a number that was accurate 75% (56-19) of the time over the last six years.
In Round 1 this year, it went 5-3. Which is okay, but definitely not great. It’s below the 75% average, so I’m a little disappointed. Especially considering it was 5-1 going into the last two game sevens where both teams were on home ice, had leads in the games, and 3-2 leads in the series. But thats sports. Anything can happen. Luck is a big part of the game and it’s something I mentioned in the last post.
That’s not to say the teams that won were lucky to win, it means that a bounce or two the other way and maybe San Jose wins in game 4…or 5… or 6… or 7 (jesus..) or Colorado puts it away in overtime. In any sense, stats are always a probability, not a destiny. Seeing a team go against the odds like LA (although it’s because of luck that they were down 3-0 in the first place) and win is what makes sports great. No one would watch if everything that happened was predictable.
With all that being said, here’s what I think will happen in round two, a round that’ll probably be much more cut and dry than round one.
Continue reading 2013-2014 nhl playoffs preview: round two