Part One if you missed it.
Where I last left off, Tyler Bozak was on pace for 75 points this season. But huge on-ice shooting percentage coupled with a low amount of games will mean some crazy short term numbers. Regression is likely. And soon.
What the last post essentially did was show that Tyler Bozak has been on a hot streak all year. Every player goes through them, but most have cold streaks too. Bozak hasn’t had any. That’s luck in and of itself.
What I didn’t mention in depth in the last post, but most of you will remember, is that Bozak was injured for about a third of the year. He was gone from games 12-23 and 29-40.
The Leafs record with Bozak is 24-15-5. A 99 point pace.
Without him it’s 12-9-3. A 92 point-pace, with only six of those wins coming in regulation.
The 92 point pace is still likely a playoff spot, but 99 is more than likely home-ice advantage in the first round. Do the Leafs win more with Bozak in the lineup, or is this just a coincidence. It’s very likely the latter. You probably remember the gigantic swing of 28 games in the middle of the season where the Leafs were completely inept. Bozak was gone for all but five games in the middle of that (where the Leafs went 0-3-2).